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Executive summary

Forecast calculations in 4C Supply® can be provided forecast configuration parameters. These parameters are forecast calculation inputs, thus become part of the forecast calculation report and are displayed at a high level in the forecast overview.

Forecast calculation parameters can be set

• in the scenario specification,

• on the forecast calculation page or

• as a mix of both.

If forecast calculation parameters are set in the scenario specification, they are

• evaluated during specification interpretation and

• displayed on the forecast calculation page as defined in the specification and as read only.

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Demand Configuration

Computation Interval

Computation and report intervals may be defined either from the Calculation page or a Demand Configuration specification table.
The computation interval can be set between 1 and 7 days. A computation interval of 1 will generate forecasts precise to one day by running a longer, more complex calculation. For most forecasting requirements the default interval of 7 days will provide sufficient detail and produce results more quickly.

See forecast configuration section.

Report Interval

The Report Interval is the interval used in all Output Reports. In the Demand Configuration Table in the SMART Editor, a value of 1 Day or 1 Month (Default) can be entered. In the Demand Configuration Tab on the Calculation page, users will select 1 Day or 1 Month from the drop down.

Manual overage

Overage which is manually added to the forecasted root node demand to define the production quantity

production quantity = manual overage x forecasted root node demand + forecasted root node demand

Accepts decimal values (e.g. 0.5) and percentage values (e.g. 50%). If a non-valid entry is made, an input validation error message is shown.

Valid range: 0% - 100%. If an out-of-range value is entered, an input validation error with the following message is shown:

Manual overage is included as root node demand in production plan validation and can therefore cause out of stock errors which aren’t reflected in the inventory projection because it doesn't represent any subordinate depot demand.

Manual overage is expected to lead to residual stock at the root node because there is no corresponding subordinate depot demand.

Manual overage impacts the forecasted total scrap, but is not the same parameter.

Enrollment level

Enrollment can be set to Site or Region. If left blank, the default is Site.

If the enrollment level is set to site, the 4C Supply® specification interpreter will evaluate specified enrollment rates as patients per site per month.

If the enrollment level is set to region, the 4C Supply® specification interpreter will evaluate enrollment rates as patients per region per month.

See Enrollment, section enrollment levels.

Confidence used for site buffers

See forecast configuration, section confidence used for site buffers.

 

Accepts decimal values (e.g. 0.5) and percentage values (e.g. 50%).

If an invalid entry is made, an error message is shown:

Valid range: As shown on the site confidence dial on the forecast calculation page.

If an invalid entry is made, an error message is shown:

Example Demand Configuration Table

Demand Configuration

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Supply Configuration

Site group prediction windows

Demand period which is covered when site shipments are calculated in the forecast. These can be set separately for 'before Last Patient In' and 'after Last Patient In'.

If an invalid entry is made, an error message is shown:

Values defined in the specification which do not match any notch value displayed on the forecast calculation page will be set to the nearest notch value during specification interpretation.

Depot prediction window (or Long Window)

Demand period which is covered when depot shipments are calculated in the forecast.

If an invalid entry is made, an error message is shown:

Values defined in the specification which do not match any notch value displayed on the forecast calculation page will be set to the nearest notch value during specification interpretation.

Site Resupply Logic

Accepts values Prancer RTSM, Buffer + Prediction and Buffer.

If an invalid entry is made, an error message is shown:

See forecast configuration, section Site Resupply Logic.

RTSM Parameter Update Interval

Accepts values Year, Quarter, and Month.

• If the RTSM parameter update interval is Year, then buffer level settings are assumed to remain unchanged in each year after the study start. Year is defined as 01January to 31December. RTSM Parameters would update every 01January that the study is running.

• If the RTSM parameter update interval is Quarter, then buffer level settings are assumed to remain unchanged in each quarter after the study start. Quarter is defined as 01January to 31March, 01April to 30Jun, 01July to 30September, and 01October to 31December. RTSM Parameters would update on 01January, 01April, 01July, and 01October.

• If the RTSM parameter update interval is Month, then buffer level settings are assumed to remain unchanged in each month after the study start. RTSM Parameters would update on the 1st of each month.

If an invalid entry is made, an error message is shown:

See forecast configuration, section RTSM Parameter Update Interval.

Resupply Trigger

Accepts values Below floor and Floor.

• If resupply trigger = Floor, then resupplies are triggered when site inventory is less than or equal to the trigger level.

• If resupply trigger = Below floor, then resupplies are triggered when site inventory is less than trigger level.

If an invalid entry is made, an error message is shown:

See forecast configuration, section Resupply Trigger.

Example Supply Configuration Table

Supply configuration